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Notes for Young Adults and Single Adults: A Look at USA and Church of the Nazarene Trends

Slide 2:  Source: The Statistical Abstract of the United States
The boom and bust cycles of births in the United States are from 1910 through 2004. The “baby boom” from 1946 through about 1965 was so large that it became popular to talk about the “baby boom generation”.  This boom was followed by a “baby bust” with a cohort sometimes called the “busters” or “Generation X”.

Slide 3:  This shows the projected growth until 2025.  There are over 40 million young adults we need to minister effectively to.

Slide 4:  While this presentation focuses on young adults, note the projected increase in Prime Timers.

Slide 5: This shows the youth camp attendance.  

Slide 7:  Take a few minutes to study this slide. Notice the young adult enrollment decline, the flat line in youth enrollment and Sunday School attendance, and the up surge in NYI members.

Slide 8:  Notice that about 60% of our teens attend college somewhere.  While supporting our Nazarene colleges and universities, we must remember our teens that attend other colleges, trade schools, and universities.

Slide 11:  Christian Smith and David Sikkink, “Social Predictors of Retention In and Switching from the Religious Faith of Family of Origin,” Review of Religious Research, 2003, volume 45, pages 190-191

Slide 12:  Source: Infoplease (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005061.html) which lists its source as the U.S. Bureau of the Census; Web: www.census.gov.

The age at first marriage for males and females has increased significantly since 1950.  However, for males the 2000 median age was about the same as it was in 1890.  For females the median age at first marriage in 2000 is 5 years older than it was in 1950 and 3 years older than it was in 1890.  

The most significant change may be that the difference between males and females has dropped from almost 4 years in 1890 to less than 2 years in 2000.

Since 15-24 year old “Never Marrieds” are younger than the median age at first marriage, it may be more realistic to eliminate them from this consideration of singles stats.

Slide 13:  Source: America's Families and Living Arrangements 2000. Publication number P20-537. By Jason Fields and Lynne M. Casper. Page 3. Issued June 2001 by the U.S. Census Bureau, page 3.

1. The large decline in “Married couples with own children” – Actually “Married couples with own children under age 18.  “Own children” includes sons & daughters by birth, step children, and adopted children who have never married and are under age 18.  The Baby Boom is experiencing the “empty nest” phase of family life.

2. Married couples without own children has been relatively stable over the 30 years – 30% in 1970 and 29% in 2000.

3. Other family households includes single parent households and other households where the householder has no spouse present but lives with other relatives including children.  This category has grown in size over the 30 years.

4. Men or women living alone – the proportion of households with one person increased by 9 percentage points between 1970 and 2000 (from 17% to 26%). Part of this increase is singles living alone who have never married.  Part of the increase is the result of an aging population.

5. Other non-family households have increased from about 2% in 1970 to about 6% in 2000.  This included cohabiting couples who made up 3.7% of all households. Never married people would be found in several of these categories – Some would be the children under 18 in the “Married couples with own children” group, many would be in the men or women living alone, and some would be in the “other non-family households” group either cohabiting or living in some other arrangement.

Slide 14:  Sources: America's Families and Living Arrangements 2000, by Jason Fields and Lynne M. Casper, U.S. Census Bureau, Issued June 2001, P20-537, page 10 and U.S. Congregational Life survey, 2001.

The percentage of Nazarenes 15 years old or older who are married might have been higher in the U.S. Congregational Life study than among the U.S. population generally because Nazarenes between 15 and 24 may have been less likely to have attended on the day of the survey.  That is, the general population figures represent the full population while the Nazarene population only accounts for those who attend.  Other studies suggest that people in their late teens and early twenties are more likely than other age groups to drop out of the church.

If this is an accurate explanation, the percentage of Nazarenes who have never married may be lower than the national percentage due to non-participating 15 to 24 year olds.